Inflation
Now lets say the central bank in Mr. Gabbar’s country decides to inflate the currency. Overnight, it prints several truckloads of money, causing 50% inflation! Prices everywhere rise, and so do wages, by 50%, because of the inflation.
Now, Mr. Gabbar is making $75 an hour, but the amount of money he owes the bank stays at $50,000. This is the key. The amount of money he owes the bank doesn’t change, but each dollar is now worth less. He has to now only work 666 hours to pay off his debt! By inflating by 50%, the central bank has reduced the real debt on Mr. Gabbar by a third! Mr. Gabbar lives happily ever after!
But wait, there is a catch. Lets say there is another Ms. Basanti. Ms. Basanti has been a good citizen for the last few years, has been regularly putting 20% of her income into savings. She hasn’t binged on debt like Mr. Gabbar, and has lived within her means. She has $50,000 in savings in a bank.
Now there is suddenly 50% inflation. The amount of money in the bank stays at $50,000, but it is now worth much less. Ms. Basanti has been saving to buy a small apartment, which cost $50,000, but because of the inflation, it is now worth $75,000. She has to now work for an additional 500 hours to be able to afford the apartment. If it wasn’t for the inflation, she could have bought the apartment today.
Inflation helps those in debt and hurts those that have saved. By printing all that money, the central bank has reward Mr. Gabbar Singh for his bad and reckless behavior, while it has hurt the model citizen Ms. Basanti. This is the “moral hazard” argument.
And here’s the twist in the story: If a country is filled with Mr. Gabbars and only a few Ms. Basantis, overall, it is a benefit to the country to inflate the currency. This is the situation the US finds itself in today. It is a nation full of debtors – Its citizens are in debt, its local governments, medicare, medicaid is in debt, and the central government is also in massive debt. The inflation nuclear option is starting to look real good at this point.
The good news is that the nuclear button (ability to print money) is with the Central Bank. Fortunately it is an independent entity, the politicians neither appoint the central bank’s head and neither can they fire him. If the politicians were in control, they would have pressed the button long ago to please the Mr. Gabbars for their votes (This is what happened in Argentina and Germany during the hyperinflation).
The bad news is that several central bankers, including the head of the US central bank, Mr. Bernanke, have publicly stated support for this option. In fact, in 2003, Mr. Bernanke made a speech where he “highly recommended” this option to the Bank of Japan to pull Japan out of its slump.
What all this means is that at some point sooner rather than later, the US Fed is going to find it easier to reduce the trillions of dollars of debt at least partially by printing money and inflating the dollar, making it worth less. The USD is a somewhat special currency owing to its status as the world’s reserve currency, but the sword cuts both ways: The US is also the only country in the world that has the option to print USD. Everyone else can only borrow USD). My bet is that at some point, the US is going to exercise this option and start printing money.
Can you tell others about what happened so we don’t make the same mistake accidently?
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